Nvidia Reports Q1 Tuesday. Consensus Is $78.8B on Revenue. Blackwell Is Already 70% of Data Center.

Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 2027 earnings after the close on May 20. Wall Street consensus is approximately $78.8 billion in revenue and $1.77 in EPS, with the company itself guiding for revenue "around $78 billion give or take 2%" excluding China data center compute (the H200 China deal announced May 15 lands outside the Q1 print). Blackwell drove nearly 70% of data center revenue in the prior quarter; that share is the central metric for this report.

$78.8 billion at 70% Blackwell share implies about $46B of Blackwell-attributable revenue in Q1, with the legacy H100/H200 line accounting for roughly $20B of data center compute and the remainder split between auto, professional visualization, and gaming. Three areas to watch in the actual print.

Data center sequential growth is the first. The street is modeling about 18% sequential growth on data center compute. Anything below 14% triggers concern about Blackwell production constraints or about cloud-customer slowdowns showing up early. Anything above 22% suggests Blackwell pricing power held against expected normalization.

Gross margin is the second. Blackwell carries higher-cost packaging (CoWoS-L) than the previous generation. The street expects modest gross margin compression (~50 basis points) on the mix shift. A wider compression suggests Nvidia is absorbing supply-chain costs to maintain customer pricing; a tighter compression suggests they are passing it through.

Forward guidance for Q2 is the third. Jensen Huang has telegraphed at GTC that combined Blackwell and Vera Rubin will reach $1 trillion in cumulative shipments through 2027. The Q2 guide will be the first quantitative test of that trajectory. Consensus for Q2 is roughly $86B in revenue; anything materially above suggests the trajectory is on track.