OpenAI and Anthropic both confidentially filed S-1 forms with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, with each company sitting near a $1 trillion valuation from its most recent private round. Some reports suggest both could begin trading by the end of 2026. Two AI labs of that scale entering the IPO queue at the same time would be unprecedented. The public market has never absorbed two near-trillion-dollar listings within a single quarter, and the comparable supply pulled out of the IPO calendar would dwarf SpaceX's recent record print.
The two filings put very different stories in front of public investors despite the matching valuations. OpenAI is the consumer-and-enterprise volume leader with the strongest brand recognition; the questions there are governance structure (post-conversion-to-for-profit), Microsoft's contractual position on the cap table, and the revenue concentration in ChatGPT subscriptions. Anthropic just had its flagship Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models forced offline by Commerce on June 12, and the questions there are regulatory surface area, enterprise contract continuity, and the share of run-rate revenue exposed to a repeat takedown.
For the cap-table math, the read is that both companies are testing the public market with valuations that price in continued doubling. At $1 trillion against roughly $50 billion run-rate revenue for either, the multiple is 20x sales. That is rich even by AI standards and requires the IPO market to underwrite multi-year growth that no AI company has delivered for two consecutive years. The likely outcome is that both file but stage the actual price-and-trade decisions a quarter or two apart, since two trillion-dollar listings competing for institutional allocations at the same time creates pricing pressure that helps neither company.
Bottom Line
The IPO queue just gained two $1 trillion-class AI listings. For the public market, this is the rare moment where the supply of new AI-equity offerings could actually catch demand. Watch the staggering: whichever company prices second pays for the lessons of the first.