Apple expects its gross margin to fall to between 45% and 46% this quarter, from 47.9% in September, and chief financial officer Kevan Parekh said "most of that decline" will come from higher memory costs. Chief executive John Ternus called memory pricing "unprecedented" on the November 2 earnings call, according to a transcript, and said Apple sees memory prices "continuing to increase" beyond December.
Conventional DRAM contract prices are forecast to rise 10% to 15% this quarter and NAND flash 15% to 20%, according to TrendForce, which ties the increases to AI server demand. Its forecast for high-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM packaged next to AI accelerators, is a 121% rise in average prices in 2027, it said on September 29. Every wafer a memory maker sends to an AI server is one that phones and laptops have to bid for.
| Source | What it reported | What it said about memory and prices |
|---|---|---|
| Apple | December-quarter gross margin of 45% to 46%, down from 47.9% | Memory drives most of the drop. Mac and iPad supply constrained, "primarily driven by memory." Prices changed on Mac and iPad in June and iPhone in September |
| Qualcomm | Handset chip revenue of $5.1 billion, down 26% | Input costs up across wafers, packaging, test and memory. Its own prices going up, with the full margin benefit in the second half of fiscal 2027 |
| TrendForce | Fourth-quarter DRAM contracts up 10% to 15%, NAND up 15% to 20% | Notebook shipments seen falling in 2027. CPU, DRAM and SSD are about 68% of a $900 laptop's parts cost |
Apple has already raised prices. Parekh said Apple "did reluctantly make the decision to change pricing" on the iPad and Mac in June and on the iPhone in September, and Ternus said those increases "provided some offset." Apple's manufacturing purchase obligations rose by $33 billion from June to September, Ternus said, as it locks in components. It gave no outlook past December.
Supply is the other half of it. Chief operating officer Sabih Khan said Apple expects "constraints on Mac and iPad, primarily driven by memory" this quarter, because demand came in higher than planned. Apple still expects revenue to grow 7% to 10% and called it the likely best quarter in its history.
Qualcomm shows what this does to Android phones. Its handset chip revenue fell 26% to $5.1 billion in the quarter to September, per its earnings release. The release describes "a broad-based increase in input costs" across wafer fabrication, assembly, test, advanced packaging and memory, and says Qualcomm is "taking actions to reflect the higher input costs in our product pricing." It expects the full benefit in the second half of its fiscal 2027, roughly April through September next year. Chief executive Cristiano Amon said demand was fine and supply was the problem, according to a translated report in Seoul Economic Daily.
So phone makers face two increases at once. Their memory costs more, and the chip that runs the phone is about to cost more too.
Laptops have less room to absorb it. TrendForce expects global notebook shipments to fall by a low-single-digit percentage in 2027, and by high single digits if DRAM and CPU prices stay high, it said on October 8. It estimates that CPU, DRAM and SSD made up about 68% of the parts cost of a $900 notebook in the third quarter. When two-thirds of the bill of materials is rising, the sticker price follows.
Smartphone memory is the one soft spot for now. TrendForce expects mobile DRAM contract prices to be flat to slightly higher this quarter after earlier increases, and says rising costs are still weighing on phone production.
The cause sits upstream. The same AI build-out behind Anthropic's $895 billion of compute commitments is buying memory at prices consumer devices cannot match. Our earlier look at Micron and China's CXMT covers the supply side.
What this changes for buyers is mostly timing. Apple expects Mac and iPad stock to run short through December, so holiday orders may take longer to fill. Android phones launched in 2027 are likely to carry Qualcomm's higher chip prices on top of memory costs. Companies planning a laptop refresh should budget for higher unit prices next year, since memory and processors make up most of what a laptop costs to build.
Bottom Line
Memory is now the biggest swing factor in what phones and laptops cost, and both Apple and Qualcomm are planning for higher costs into 2027. Buy hardware you already need before the next round of price changes, and expect Mac and iPad stock to stay tight through the holidays.