OpenAI has told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September, the Financial Times reported on October 8, per Reuters. That is about $20 billion below the roughly $70 billion figure that circulated a week earlier. OpenAI declined to comment to the FT.
The $70 billion number was an investor estimate. Anthropic counts sales made through cloud partners such as AWS and Google Cloud in its run rate, and OpenAI leaves those sales out, per TechCrunch. Investors adjusted OpenAI's figure to match Anthropic's method and landed near $40 billion for August. When OpenAI said revenue had grown 70%, they applied that growth to their own estimate and reached $70 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter cited by Reuters.
Markets treated the report as a demand signal. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.25% on October 8, its worst day since mid-August, per CNN. Oracle dropped more than 5% during the session, per Yahoo Finance. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields weighed on stocks the same day. The report was one cause among several.
The valuation math changes more than the business does. OpenAI is seeking at least $30 billion at a reported $1.4 trillion valuation, which we covered on October 2. At $70 billion that is 20 times run rate. At $50 billion it is 28 times. Anthropic reported a $65 billion run rate in July on its broader definition. The two figures are built differently, and no public number puts both labs on the same basis.
Bottom Line
OpenAI's run rate is about $50 billion on its own definition, and the $70 billion figure was an investor adjustment. If you compare AI labs, check whether a revenue number includes sales through cloud partners before you put two of them side by side. If you are pricing the next round, the multiple moved from 20 to 28 times with no change in the business.